Our Take on the North Shore Market. Right Now.

As of November 5, 2022

North Shore Real Estate

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Evanston | Glencoe | Glenview | Kenilworth | Northfield | Northbrook | Wilmette | Winnetka

Each day the media reports more news about inflation, interest rates and a housing downturn. What is really happening on the North Shore? We are carefully tracking data for our North Shore towns so that we can immediately know how the local market may be shifting. Read on for our findings. If you would like to receive bi-weekly updates to track the North Shore market too, click here.

Our take on the North Shore market. . . 

For the first half of 2022, the North Shore Real Estate market moved fast and furious.  We've all heard tales of buyers facing multiple offers, bidding over list, and facing pressure cooker decisions.  The market over the last 18 months was like none we'd ever seen. With low inventory, high demand, low interest rates and a relatively stable global economy, the great real estate surge was on!

But now, in the latter half of 2022, the winds are shifting and we find ourselves with rising interest rates, rampant inflation and an uncertain economic outlook - both domestically and globally. What is going on and how can you best prepare as a homebuyer or seller?

To provide our clients with every advantage in the market, we spend considerable time analyzing data and have created detailed summary charts (see below).  Our emphasis is on the North Shore, but should you need analysis for other areas, please reach out and we would be happy to accommodate.

Forecasting Ahead. . . 

Despite the rise in interest rates and economic uncertainty, we believe prices will remain relatively stable with only modest decreases (on average). This conclusion stems from the fact that inventory is projected to remain low on the North Shore, and demand, although it will lessen, will still exceed the number of available homes. Instead of  10-12 multiple offers on the most popular homes, we may see just 1-3 offers instead, Market time is expected to creep up.

North Shore demand still strong:

While the interest rates and economy will cause many struggles and create real downward pressure on some buyers who will be forced out of the marketplace nationally, the relative affluence of North Shore buyers (and sellers) should provide better protection against layoffs, job cuts and tumbling portfolios, and help maintain North Shore demand.

Historically, about 20% of North Shore buyers pay cash; and many buyers still have robust portfolios (despite the topsy-turvy stock market). Chicago has a healthy tech industry, and buyers desire our amenities: top notch schools, incredible recreation, relative safety, and easy commutes, making the North Shore a popular destination. In short, we expect enough buyers will remain in the North Shore marketplace to create adequate demand and prevent prices from tumbling in a significant manner.

Low Inventory Forecast Ahead. . . 

The low mortgage rates over the past several years will cause many homeowners to stay put, reducing available homes for purchase. In April, Fortune Magazine and Redfin each proclaimed that about 50% of  US mortgage-holders have rates below 4% on their current home. Given those stats, we expect that many homeowners will choose NOT to sell. With current rates at about 6.5%-7% and trending up - making a move may cost more than staying put. This pressure on inventory is expected to endure for quite some time - and will result in fewer overall transactions, both locally and nationally.

2022 transactions in New Trier Township are down from 2021, and are expected to remain at a lower rate. The number of closed transactions from January - September for the last 4 years in New Trier Township follows:

2019 - 805 homes sold

2020 - 868 homes sold (includes Covid quarantine period)

2021 - 1,115 homes sold

2022 YTD - 904 homes sold

The media is reporting on a housing downturn. It's important to note that the North Shore behaves differently than the national market - it even differs from Chicago's market. We do agree, generally, that buyers under the $1M pricepoint (especially) will find themselves with less buying power on account of the interest rate hikes, recent property tax reassessments, and general inflation - and this will make most buyers more selective and cautious.  That being said, we expect many North Shore buyers will, nevertheless, proceed with their purchase plans.

As in any market (strong or weak), move-in ready homes are always most coveted, and when buyers become more selective, this is especially true. With continuing supply chain and labor shortages, many young buyers prefer a move-in ready home, because they don't have the bandwidth to coordinate renovation work on top of their demanding careers and young ones at home. The message for sellers: clean-up, repair and stage simply to ensure you get top dollar and a shorter market time!!

See Below for Data from all North Shore Towns

One of the best indicators of market activity is the number of buyers writing contracts. Of course, the number of homes available affects that number and should also be considered. Showing activity is also important to track as it provides insight into the number of interested parties by season and reflects how competitive the marketplace is at any given time, as well as how selective buyers may be getting as they have time to tour more homes.

Below, we have plotted on a graph for each North Shore town:

  • number of "under contract" homes per month (red);
  • number of showings per month (blue line); and
  • number of homes available for sale as of the last day of each month (green).

These graphs encompass 2019-2022 so that you can see the dramatic differences from pre-Covid through to the present. If you follow the blue line (showing activity), you will see in 2019, there were many more homes than showings. The opposite occurred once the real estate surge was upon us - with many more showings than available homes for sale!

You'll also see contract activity (red bars) very close to the number of available homes (green bars) and sometimes even exceeding - this is due to off-market listings and the fact that total homes on market is counted on the last day of the month. Homes were trading so fast that they were going under contract before ever showing up as available given the months' end statistic. Note, however, that in 2019, under contract activity was always well below the number of available homes.

We have included data through October 31, 2022. We are carefully tracking these stats in order to better predict where the market is heading. If you would like us to update you on our analysis (about every 2 weeks), please fill out this form.

  • average number of contracts per day in a given month
  • average number of showings per day in a given month

Data for detached single family homes only

Infosparks by MRED, as of 11/5/22

North Shore Summary - November 5, 2022

Nov 21 summary chart

Evanston

Evanston Real Estate Market Statistics 2022

EVANSTON:

In September 2022:

  • 27 homes went under contract
  • There were about 16.2 showings per day

In October 2022:

  • Total number of homes available was the same at 68
  • 30 homes went under contract which is stronger than September
  • Showings were averaging about 13.7 per day, and were 15% lower than September

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • Price beginning to drop and months supply creeping up - common for fall and winter months but supply highest since 2020.

Conclusion: Contract activity still strong in early October, with showing activity still strong. Buyers want to view multiple homes before making any decisions.  Price beginning to see some decline - will need to watch in coming months to see if this is temporary or a more permanent trend downward.

Glencoe

Glencoe Real Estate Market 2022

GLENCOE:

In September 2022:

  • 8 houses went under contract in September
  • There were about 3.7 showings per day

In October 2022:

  • Total number of homes available was slightly higher than September
  • Under contracts down 50% (4 fewer houses)
  • Showings were averaging about 1.6 per day (58% lower)

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • Price holding firm (slightly higher), and months supply, while rising throughout most of 2022, took a dip in October and is comparable to 2020 levels. 

Conclusion: Both showing activity and contracts weaker in October. Price remaining stable due to low supply. Will need to monitor in coming weeks to determine if permanent trend or temporary fall dip.

Glenview

Glenview Real Estate Market 2022

GLENVIEW:

In September 2022:

  • 28 homes went under contract in September
  • There were about 26.2 showings per day

In October 2022:

  • Total number of homes available is down about 13%
  • Contracts only slightly down at 3.5%. 
  • Showings were averaging about 21.6 per day (a 17% decrease), which seems consistent with lower inventory.

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • Price continuing to trend downward, and months supply, which had been rising. leveled off in October, and is comparable to late 2020 levels. 

Conclusion: Under contracts remained strong while price and showing activity started to slow. Price continuing to trend downward in October - will monitor in coming weeks to determine if temporary or an indicator of a more long term decline.

Kenilworth

Kenilworth Real Estate Market 2022

KENILWORTH:

  • Keep in mind that due to the small size of this town, statistics can get skewed with just 1 or 2 sales.

In September 2022:

  • There were no homes under contract in September.
  • On average, there were .86 showings per day

In October 2022:

  • Total number of homes available is down slightly (by 1 home)
  • Under contracts soared with 4 for the month of October.
  • Showings were averaging 1.8 per day, which is 118% higher than in September.

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • Price started trending upward a bit, but the small number of homes can skew this analysis. Supply seems stable.

Conclusion: October was a great month for Kenilworth! Lots of under contract activity and showings too.  We will continue to monitor in the coming weeks.

Northfield

Northfield Real Estate Market 2022

Northfield:

In September 2022:

  • There was just 1 under contract in September.
  • On average, there were about 4 showings per day

In October 2022:

  • Total number of homes was down 22% (4 fewer homes)
  • Under contracts up 200% (4 in Oct v 1 in Sept)
  • Showings were averaging 2.9 per day, which was lower than September

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • Price has remained strong, with minimal decline. Months supply is also staying stable - while slightly lower, it is still at historically low levels.

Conclusion: Activity was strong in Northfield during October. Showing activity was lower but contract activity soared, suggesting that only serious buyers were shopping. It will be telling to see if that heightened activity translates to any additional contracts.  We will continue to monitor in the coming weeks.

Northbrook

Northbrook Real Estate Market 2022

NORTHBROOK:

In September 2022:

  • 26 homes went under contract
  • There were about 18.9 showings per day

In October 2022:

  • Total number of homes available is down (about 15.8%)
  • Contract activity rose by 27%
  • Showings rose too and were averaging about 19.5 per day, which is 3.5% higher 

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • Price may be starting to level off. has remained strong with no decline as of yet. Months supply decreasing slightly, but it is still at historically low levels. 

Conclusion: Showing activity surged higher in early October, with under contracts rising slightly too. With price staying strong, and months supply ticking only slightly up, Northbrook appears to show no signs of pause. We will monitor in coming weeks to determine if that holds true.

Wilmette

Wilmette Real Estate Market 2022

WILMETTE:

In September 2022:

  • 23 homes went under contract in September
  • There were about 16.2 showings per day

In October 2022:

  • Total number of homes available is slightly down (7%)
  • Contract activity also slightly down (9%)
  • Showings down 29% but more serious buyers in the marketplace

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • Price has an incredible trajectory in 2022, and now appears to be falling ever so slightly. Months supply is still at historically low levels. 

Conclusion: While showing activity declined by 29% in October (not unexpected), contracts declined to a lesser degree, indicating continues overall strength in the market. We will monitor in coming weeks. 

Winnetka

Winnetka Real Estate Market 2022

WINNETKA:

In September 2022:

  • 7 homes went under contract in September
  • There were about 5.7 showings per day

In October 2022:

  • Total number of homes available has slightly increased to 9 (up 14%)
  • Contract activity also rose a bit with 2 additional contracts (up 29%)
  • Showings slowed in October, averaging about 3.4 per day

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • Price has an incredible trajectory in 2022, and appears to have a slight decline. Months supply crept up slightly but is heading lower again - and remains at historically low levels. 

Conclusion: Winnetka had a strong October. While showing activity declined slightly, under contracts rose. We will monitor in coming weeks whether the Winnetka market remains stable, or whether it may experience a slight downturn, given the meteoric rise in values that occurred in the summer of 2022.

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