Our Take on the North Shore Market. Right Now.
As of January 18, 2023
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Evanston | Glencoe | Glenview | Kenilworth | Northfield | Northbrook | Wilmette | Winnetka
Each day the media reports more news about inflation, interest rates and a housing downturn. What is really happening on the North Shore? We are carefully tracking data for our North Shore towns so that we can immediately know how the local market may be shifting. Read on for our findings. If you would like to receive bi-weekly updates to track the North Shore market too, click here.
Our take on the North Shore market. . .
For the first half of 2022, the North Shore Real Estate market moved fast and furious. We've all heard tales of buyers facing multiple offers, bidding over list, and facing pressure cooker decisions. The market back then was none we'd ever seen. With low inventory, high demand, low interest rates and a relatively stable global economy, the great real estate surge was on!
But, in the latter half of 2022 and moving into 2023, the winds are shifting and we find ourselves with rising interest rates, rampant inflation and an uncertain economic outlook - both domestically and globally. What is going on and how can you best prepare as a homebuyer or seller?
To provide our clients with every advantage in the market, we spend considerable time analyzing data and have created detailed summary charts (see below). Our emphasis is on the North Shore, but should you need analysis for other areas, please reach out and we would be happy to accommodate.
Forecasting Ahead. . .
Despite the rise in interest rates and economic uncertainty, we believe prices will remain relatively stable with only modest decreases (on average). This conclusion stems from the fact that inventory is projected to remain low on the North Shore, and demand, although it will lessen, will still exceed the number of available homes. Instead of 10-12 multiple offers on the most popular homes, we may see just 1-3 offers instead, Market time is expected to creep up.
North Shore demand still strong:
While the interest rates and economy will cause many struggles and create real downward pressure on some buyers who will be forced out of the marketplace nationally, the relative affluence of North Shore buyers (and sellers) should provide better protection against layoffs, job cuts and tumbling portfolios, and help maintain North Shore demand.
Historically, about 20% of North Shore buyers pay cash; and many buyers still have robust portfolios (despite the topsy-turvy stock market). Chicago has a healthy tech industry, and buyers desire our amenities: top notch schools, incredible recreation, relative safety, and easy commutes, making the North Shore a popular destination. In short, we expect enough buyers will remain in the North Shore marketplace to create adequate demand and prevent prices from tumbling in a significant manner.
Low Inventory Forecast Ahead. . .
The low mortgage rates over the past several years will cause many homeowners to stay put, reducing available homes for purchase. In April 2022, Fortune Magazine and Redfin each proclaimed that about 50% of US mortgage-holders have rates below 4% on their current home. Given those stats, we expect that many homeowners will choose NOT to sell. With current rates at about 6.5%-7% and trending up - making a move may cost more than staying put. This pressure on inventory is expected to endure for quite some time - and will result in fewer overall transactions, both locally and nationally.
2022 transactions in New Trier Township were down from 2021, and are expected to remain at a lower rate for the foreseeable future due to low inventory. The number of closed transactions per calendar year for the last 4 years in New Trier Township follows:
2019 - 982 homes sold
2020 - 1,220 homes sold (includes Covid quarantine period)
2021 - 1,366 homes sold
2022 - 1,016 homes sold
Here are stats for the month of January for each year:
2019 - 40
2020 - 51
2021 - 70
2022 - 68
Through 1/18/23 - 19
The media is reporting on a housing downturn. It's important to note that the North Shore behaves differently than the national market - it even differs from Chicago's market. We do agree, generally, that buyers under the $1M pricepoint (especially) will find themselves with less buying power on account of the interest rate hikes, recent property tax reassessments, and general inflation - and this will make most buyers more selective and cautious. That being said, we expect many North Shore buyers will, nevertheless, proceed with their purchase plans. We also anticipate that rates will level off by late spring - early summer and hover in the 5% range - which will be helpful to buyers.
As in any market (strong or weak), move-in ready homes are always most coveted, and when buyers become more selective, this is especially true. With continuing supply chain and labor shortages, many young buyers prefer a move-in ready home, because they don't have the bandwidth to coordinate renovation work on top of their demanding careers and young ones at home. The message for sellers: clean-up, repair and stage (simply) to ensure you get top dollar and a shorter market time!!
See Below for Data from all North Shore Towns
One of the best indicators of market activity is the number of buyers writing contracts. Of course, the number of homes available affects that number and should also be considered. Showing activity is also important to track as it provides insight into the number of interested parties by season and reflects how competitive the marketplace is at any given time, as well as how selective buyers may be getting as they have time to tour more homes.
Below, we have plotted on a graph for each North Shore town:
- number of "under contract" homes per month (red);
- number of showings per month (blue line); and
- number of homes available for sale as of the last day of each month (green).
These graphs encompass 2019-2023 so that you can see the dramatic differences from pre-Covid through to the present. If you follow the blue line (showing activity), you will see in 2019, there were many more homes than showings. The opposite occurred once the real estate surge was upon us - with many more showings than available homes for sale!
You'll also see contract activity (red bars) very close to the number of available homes (green bars) and sometimes even exceeding - this is due to off-market listings and the fact that total homes on market is counted on the last day of the month. Homes were trading so fast that they were going under contract before ever showing up as available given the months' end statistic. Note, however, that in 2019, under contract activity was always well below the number of available homes.
We have included data through January 18, 2023. We are carefully tracking these stats in order to better predict where the market is heading. If you would like us to update you on our analysis (every month), please fill out this form.
- average number of contracts per day in a given month
- average number of showings per day in a given month
Data for detached single family homes only
Infosparks by MRED, as of 1/18/23
North Shore Summary - January 18, 2023
Evanston
Evanston | Glencoe | Glenview | Kenilworth | Northfield | Northbrook | Wilmette | Winnetka
EVANSTON:
In December 2022:
- 9 homes went under contract
- There were about 5.5 showings per day
As of January 18, 2023:
- January 2022 had a similar number of homes on the market (39) and there are 41 currently.
- In January 2022, 32 homes went under contract. If 2023's pace was keeping with 2022, we would expect about 16 homes at this time of the month, but we have only 8 under contract. Pace is slower in Evanston thus far.
- Showings also appear sluggish. In January 2022, there were 736. We'd expect about 368 at this point in the month, but have only 197.
Price and Supply (see charts below):
- Price was slightly up at the end of December and months supply decreased in December, ever so slightly. It is likely trending up a but in January.
Conclusion: With inventory levels similar to last January, January's contract activity seems sluggish (about 50% of what we would expect at this time). Showings also appear to be down, despite the mild weather. Will need to watch in coming months to see if this is temporary or a more permanent trend downward.
Glencoe
Evanston | Glencoe | Glenview | Kenilworth | Northfield | Northbrook | Wilmette | Winnetka
GLENCOE:
In December 2022:
- 6 houses under contract
- 18 total homes available
- Showings slowed to about 2.2 per day
As of January 18, 2023:
- Total number of homes available (17) is about the same as December and January 2022 (18).
- Under contracts are way down. With 11 homes contracted in January 2022, would expect about 5-6 at this time, but just have 2.
- Showings are slightly higher than December at 3 per day, but down from January 2022 when they were 4.4 per day.
Price and Supply (see charts below):
- Price recovered a bit in December, rising to October levels. Months supply, while rising throughout most of 2022, continued its slight decline and is now comparable to early 2021 levels.
Conclusion: Both showing activity and contracts have weakened at the beginning of January. Will need to monitor in coming weeks to determine if permanent trend or temporary.
Glenview
Evanston | Glencoe | Glenview | Kenilworth | Northfield | Northbrook | Wilmette | Winnetka
GLENVIEW:
In December 2022:
- 12 homes went under contract
- 54 total homes available
- There were about 12 showings per day
As of January 18, 2023:
- Total number of homes available is 52, a number comparable to December 2022, but down from January 2022, when there were 62 at month's end.
- 12 homes under contract, which is way down from January 2022, when there were 52. Midway through the month, we'd expect about 27 by now. January 2023's pace is higher than December.
- Showings have risen since December, averaging 17.3 per day, but way down from January 2022 when they were 33 per day with only slightly more inventory.
Price and Supply (see charts below):
- Price continuing to trend downward, and months supply also continued a slow decline for December.
Conclusion: Inventory slightly down, while contracts and showings declined more markedly. Buyers are cautious and waiting to see what happens with the economy and interest rates.
Kenilworth
Evanston | Glencoe | Glenview | Kenilworth | Northfield | Northbrook | Wilmette | Winnetka
KENILWORTH:
- Keep in mind that due to the small size of this town, statistics can get skewed with just 1 or 2 sales.
In December 2022:
- There was 1 home under contract
- On average, there were just 4 showings for the whole month, for 3 listed homes.
As of January 18, 2023:
- Total number of homes has more than doubled from December and is just slightly lower (20%) than January 2022.
- Under contracts are even with December, but way down from January 2023 when 5 homes went under contract. Just 1 home under contract as of 1/18/23, and we should expect 2-3.
- Showings down, on average, to just .4 per day thus far in January. Last January, with only 2 additional homes on the market, showings were averaging 3.7 per day.
Price and Supply (see charts below):
- Price slightly up in December, but the small number of homes can skew this analysis. Months supply slightly lower than December.
Conclusion: Contracts and showings are sluggish at mid-month, with buyers taking their time in jumping into the mix. We will continue to monitor in the coming weeks.
Northfield
Evanston | Glencoe | Glenview | Kenilworth | Northfield | Northbrook | Wilmette | Winnetka
Northfield:
In December 2022:
- There were no contracts
- On average, there was about 1 showing per day for 10 total homes
As of January 18, 2023:
- Total number of homes is down by 1 from December and down by 2 from January 2022.
- 1 under contract thus far; given January 2023 levels, would expect 2-3 contracts by now to keep pace.
- Showings were averaging 2.3 per day, representing a 38% decrease from January 2023
Price and Supply (see charts below):
- Price has trended downward. Months supply is also staying stable - while slightly lower, it is still at historically low levels.
Conclusion: Contracts and showings in Northfield were slow during December, and remain slower than expected as of mid-January. We will continue to monitor in the coming weeks.
Northbrook
Evanston | Glencoe | Glenview | Kenilworth | Northfield | Northbrook | Wilmette | Winnetka
NORTHBROOK:
In December 2022:
- 15 homes went under contract
- There were about 10.7 showings per day
- 47 total homes on the market
As of January 18, 2023:
- Total number of homes available is slightly higher than both December and January 2023.
- Contract activity is down 1/3 from December. Given January 2022, one would expect about 18-19 homes under contract and there are 10 as of now.
- Showings up 27% from December and averaging about 13.6 per day. Showings way down from January 2022 when they averaged 23.8 per day.
Price and Supply (see charts below):
- Price continued to rise higher. Months supply slightly down and still at historically low levels.
Conclusion: Showing activity higher than December but down from January 2022. Under contracts down but inventory slightly up. We will monitor in coming weeks.
Wilmette
Evanston | Glencoe | Glenview | Kenilworth | Northfield | Northbrook | Wilmette | Winnetka
WILMETTE:
In December 2022:
- Just 4 homes under contract in December
- There were about 6 showings per day for 18 homes on the market
As of January 18, 2023:
- Total number of homes is up 39% from December and up 25% from January 2022
- Contract activity is up from December levels, but not where it should be given January 2022 numbers. With less inventory in January 2022, we'd expect more than 13 at this point in January 2023 to keep pace.
- Showings down 48%
Price and Supply (see charts below):
- Price had an incredible trajectory in 2022, and is continuing to fall a modest levels. Months supply is still at historically low levels and remaining stable.
Conclusion: Inventory is on the rise, yet showings and contracts are lower than expected. This should continue to put pressure on price. We will monitor in coming weeks.
Winnetka
Evanston | Glencoe | Glenview | Kenilworth | Northfield | Northbrook | Wilmette | Winnetka
WINNETKA:
In December 2022:
- 6 homes went under contract, with 18 on the market
- There were about 1.2 showings per day
As of January 18, 2023:
- Total number of homes available has decreased by 2 from December (down 11%) and decreased 36% from January 2022.
- There have been no contracts in Winnetka as of 1/18/23, which is very low. January 2022 had 27 total, so we would expect about 13-14 by now to keep pace. December had 6.
- Showings have stayed consistent with December's pace at 1.2 per day, but are way down from January 2022, when showings were 8.8 per day.
Price and Supply (see charts below):
- Price had an incredible trajectory in 2022, and appears to continuing a marked decline. Months supply has stabilized - and remains at historically low levels.
Conclusion: Winnetka's lower supply may help offset its declines in price, contract activity and showings. Buyers remain wary and cautious and feel they have time to see how the market plays out. We will monitor in coming weeks.
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