Our Take on the North Shore Market. Right Now.

North Shore Real Estate

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Evanston | Glencoe | Glenview | Kenilworth | Northfield | Northbrook | Wilmette | Winnetka

Each day the media reports more news about inflation, interest rates and a housing downturn. What is really happening on the North Shore? We are carefully tracking data for our North Shore towns so that we can immediately know how the local market may be shifting. Read on for our findings. If you would like to receive bi-weekly updates to track the North Shore market too, click here.

Our take on the North Shore market. . . 

For the first half of 2022, the North Shore Real Estate market moved fast and furious.  We've all heard tales of buyers facing multiple offers, bidding over list, and facing pressure cooker decisions.  The market over the last 18 months was like none we'd ever seen. With low inventory, high demand, low interest rates and a relatively stable global economy, the great real estate surge was on!

But now, in the latter half of 2022, the winds are shifting and we find ourselves with rising interest rates, rampant inflation and an uncertain economic outlook - both domestically and globally. What is going on and how can you best prepare as a homebuyer or seller?

To provide our clients with every advantage in the market, we spend considerable time analyzing data and have created detailed summary charts (see below).  Our emphasis is on the North Shore, but should you need analysis for other areas, please reach out and we would be happy to accommodate.

Forecasting Ahead. . . 

Despite the rise in interest rates and economic uncertainty, we believe prices will remain relatively stable with only modest decreases (on average). This conclusion stems from the fact that inventory is projected to remain low on the North Shore, and demand, although it will lessen, will still exceed the number of available homes. Instead of  10-12 multiple offers on the most popular homes, we may see just 1-3 offers instead, Market time is expected to creep up.

North Shore demand still strong:

While the interest rates and economy will cause many struggles and create real downward pressure on some buyers who will be forced out of the marketplace nationally, the relative affluence of North Shore buyers (and sellers) should provide better protection against layoffs, job cuts and tumbling portfolios, and help maintain North Shore demand.

Historically, about 20% of North Shore buyers pay cash; and many buyers still have robust portfolios (despite the topsy-turvy stock market). Chicago has a healthy tech industry, and buyers desire our amenities: top notch schools, incredible recreation, relative safety, and easy commutes, making the North Shore a popular destination. In short, we expect enough buyers will remain in the North Shore marketplace to create adequate demand and prevent prices from tumbling in a significant manner.

Low Inventory Forecast Ahead. . . 

The low mortgage rates over the past several years will cause many homeowners to stay put, reducing available homes for purchase. In April, Fortune Magazine and Redfin each proclaimed that about 50% of  US mortgage-holders have rates below 4% on their current home. Given those stats, we expect that many homeowners will choose NOT to sell. With current rates at about 6.5%-7% and trending up - making a move may cost more than staying put. This pressure on inventory is expected to endure for quite some time - and will result in fewer overall transactions, both locally and nationally.

2022 transactions in New Trier Township are down from 2021, and are expected to remain at a lower rate. The number of closed transactions from January - September for the last 4 years in New Trier Township follows:

2019 - 805 homes sold

2020 - 868 homes sold (includes Covid quarantine period)

2021 - 1,115 homes sold

2022 - 845 homes sold

The media is reporting on a housing downturn. It's important to note that the North Shore behaves differently than the national market - it even differs from Chicago's market. We do agree, generally, that buyers under the $1M pricepoint (especially) will find themselves with less buying power on account of the interest rate hikes, recent property tax reassessments, and general inflation - and this will make most buyers more selective and cautious.  That being said, we expect many North Shore buyers will, nevertheless, proceed with their purchase plans.

As in any market (strong or weak), move-in ready homes are always most coveted, and when buyers become more selective, this is especially true. With continuing supply chain and labor shortages, many young buyers prefer a move-in ready home, because they don't have the bandwidth to coordinate renovation work on top of their demanding careers and young ones at home. The message for sellers: clean-up, repair and stage simply to ensure you get top dollar and a shorter market time!!

See Below for Data from all North Shore Towns

One of the best indicators of market activity is the number of buyers writing contracts. Of course, the number of homes available affects that number and should also be considered. Showing activity is also important to track as it provides insight into the number of interested parties by season and reflects how competitive the marketplace is at any given time, as well as how selective buyers may be getting as they have time to tour more homes.

Below, we have plotted on a graph for each North Shore town:

  • number of "under contract" homes per month (red);
  • number of showings per month (blue line); and
  • number of homes available for sale as of the last day of each month (green).

These graphs encompass 2019-2022 so that you can see the dramatic differences from pre-Covid through to the present. If you follow the blue line (showing activity), you will see in 2019, there were many more homes than showings. The opposite occurred once the real estate surge was upon us - with many more showings than available homes for sale!

You'll also see contract activity (red bars) very close to the number of available homes (green bars) and sometimes even exceeding - this is due to off-market listings and the fact that total homes on market is counted on the last day of the month. Homes were trading so fast that they were going under contract before ever showing up as available given the months' end statistic. Note, however, that in 2019, under contract activity was always well below the number of available homes.

We have included data for the month of October through October 15, 2022 (when these charts were prepared). We are carefully tracking these stats in order to better predict where the market is heading. If you would like us to update you on our analysis (about every 2 weeks), please fill out this form.

  • average number of contracts per day in a given month
  • average number of showings per day in a given month

Data for detached single family homes only

Infosparks by MRED, as of 10/15/22

North Shore Summary - October 15, 2022

Oct 15 NS summary chart

Evanston

evanston oct 15 all stats

EVANSTON:

In September 2022:

  • 27 homes went under contract
  • There were about 16.2 showings per day

As of October 15, 2022:

  • Total number of homes available was about 10% lower than September
  • 17 houses under contract by the middle of the month, which is ahead of expectations (13-14 expected)
  • Showings were averaging about 32 per day (nearly double that of September)

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • Price beginning to drop and months supply creeping up - common for fall and winter months but supply highest since 2020.

Conclusion: Contract activity still strong in early October, with showing activity very strong. Buyers want to view multiple homes before making any decisions.  Price beginning to see some decline - will need to watch in coming months to see if this is temporary or a more permanent trend downward.

Glencoe

glencoe oct 15 all stats

GLENCOE:

In September 2022:

  • 8 houses went under contract in September
  • There were about 3.7 showings per day

As of October 15, 2022:

  • Total number of homes available was slightly higher than September
  • Only 2 houses under contract by mid-month (would expect 4 to keep pace with Sept)
  • Showings were averaging about 1.5 per day (62% lower)

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • Price beginning to level off with a slight drop recently, and months supply has been rising throughout 2022, and is comparable to 2020 levels. 

Conclusion: Both showing activity and contracts weaker in early October. Some leveling off of prices. Will need to monitor in coming weeks to determine if permanent trend or temporary fall dip.

Glenview

glenview oct 15 all stats

GLENVIEW:

In September 2022:

  • 28 homes went under contract in September
  • There were about 26.2 showings per day

As of October 15, 2022:

  • Total number of homes available is down slightly (about 7%)
  • Contracts slightly under expectations to keep pace with Sept - would expect 14 and have 12
  • Showings were averaging about 35 per day (a 34% increase without factoring in fewer available homes)

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • Price beginning to trend downward, and months supply has been rising throughout 2022, and is comparable to late 2020 levels. 

Conclusion: Showing activity is surging in early October, with under contracts remaining strong too. Price trended downward in September - will monitor in coming weeks to determine if temporary or an indicator of a more long term decline.

Kenilworth

kenilworth oct 15 all stats

KENILWORTH:

  • Keep in mind that due to the small size of this town, statistics can get skewed with just 1 or 2 sales.

In September 2022:

  • There were no homes under contract in September.
  • On average, there were .86 showings per day

As of October 15, 2022:

  • Total number of homes available is the same 
  • 2 homes under contract in early October
  • Showings were averaging 2.2 per day, which is 155% higher than in September.

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • There were too few transactions to make any conclusions about price, but supply has stayed low, and is still at historically low levels.

Conclusion: Showing activity was stronger during the early part of October, and translated to one home under contract. It will be telling to see if that heightened activity translates to any additional contracts after a very slow September.  We will continue to monitor in the coming weeks.

Northfield

northield oct 15 all stats

Northfield:

In September 2022:

  • There was just 1 under contract in September.
  • On average, there were about 4 showings per day

As of October 15, 2022:

  • Total number of homes available is down one 
  • One home under contract in early October
  • Showings were averaging 4.1 per day, which is about equal to September

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • Price has remained strong, with minimal decline. Months supply is also staying stable - while slightly up, it is still at historically low levels.

Conclusion: Showing activity was stronger during the early part of October, as buyers have breathing space to view several homes before deciding. It will be telling to see if that heightened activity translates to any additional contracts.  We will continue to monitor in the coming weeks.

Northbrook

northbrook oct 15 all stats

NORTHBROOK:

In September 2022:

  • 26 homes went under contract
  • There were about 18.9 showings per day

As of October 15, 2022:

  • Total number of homes available is down (about 12%)
  • 15 homes under contract by the middle of the month which is slightly above September's pace (would expect 13)
  • Showings were averaging about 27.46 per day, which is 44% higher 

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • Price has remained strong with no decline as of yet. Months supply has risen, ever so slightly, but it is still at historically low levels. 

Conclusion: Showing activity surged higher in early October, with under contracts rising slightly too. With price staying strong, and months supply ticking only slightly up, Northbrook appears to show no signs of pause. We will monitor in coming weeks to determine if that holds true.

Wilmette

wilmette oct 15 all stats

WILMETTE:

In September 2022:

  • 23 homes went under contract in September
  • There were about 16.2 showings per day

As of October 15, 2022:

  • Total number of homes available is the same
  • For first half of month, just 9 homes under contract - should have seen 11-12 if September pace had held up
  • Showings were averaging about 14.67 per day so declining slightly

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • Price has an incredible trajectory in 2022, and now appears to be falling ever so slightly. Months supply is starting to creep up, but it is still at historically low levels. 

Conclusion: Showing activity has remained stable in early October, but under contracts are slightly down as of October 8 (about 34% lower). We will monitor in coming weeks to determine whether price continues to decline, and whether under contract activity remains lower than September. 

Winnetka

winnetka oct 15 all stats

WINNETKA:

In September 2022:

  • 7 homes went under contract in September
  • There were about 5.7 showings per day

As of October 15, 2022:

  • Total number of homes available has increased by two (up 7%)
  • 3 homes under contract by mid-month which is in line with expectations
  • Showings were averaging about 5.2 per day (trending slightly lower considering there are more homes on the market now)

Price and Supply (see charts below):

  • Price has an incredible trajectory in 2022, and appears to be maintaining strength for now. Months supply crept up slightly but is heading lower again - and remains at historically low levels. 

Conclusion: Showing activity seems to be slightly sluggish. Under contracts are stable but may also be slowing. Price and months supply is stable. We will monitor in coming weeks whether the Winnetka market remains stable, or whether it may experience a slight downturn, given the meteoric rise in values that occurred in the summer of 2022.

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